Below, we provide several arguments supporting the assessment of Israel’s military-political cabinet that, despite the associated risks, the fall of Assad’s regime is ultimately beneficial for Israel. Consequently, the takeover of power by rebel forces should not cause concern, at least in the short term:
1. Humanitarian Aid to Rebels in Southern Syria
During the earlier phase of the Syrian civil war about a decade ago, Israel provided substantial humanitarian aid to the population in southern Syria that rose against Assad’s regime, particularly in the medical sphere. This aid was public and open.
Israel established field hospitals to treat the injured and sick. Thousands of Syrians received medical assistance either in Israel or within Syria, facilitated by the provision of medical equipment to the area.
Southern Syria is located in close proximity to Israel. As a result, Israel strengthened its relations with the local population and rebel factions in the region, including the Druze and even some radical Islamist movements, which also received Israeli humanitarian assistance. This fostered positive sentiments towards Israel among the local population and created a kind of obligation on the part of local rebel groups towards Israel.
2. Kurds as a Strategic Ally
The Syrian Kurds are a significant force supported by the United States. They have already established control over the strategically vital Al-Bukamal crossing on the Syrian-Iraqi border. This crossing was previously used by Iran to transport weapons into Syria, which were later directed to Hezbollah or the Syrian army.
Currently, the Kurds, backed by the US (receiving training, funding, and weapons), control this region, which is evidently advantageous for Israel. The Kurds block Iran’s access to arms and hinder the entry of Shiite militants into Syria. Moreover, the Kurds also control a significant portion of southern Syria, which is near Israel’s borders—another critical factor for Israel’s security.
3. Cooperation with the Druze
Given the current new circumstances, the likelihood of developing cooperation between Israel and the Druze is high, particularly through the Druze community in Israel. The southern Syrian province of As-Suwayda is home to a significant Druze population. This can also be leveraged in Israel’s interests.
4. Collaboration with ‘Moderate’ Rebels
In Syria, there are numerous secular rebel groups that do not pose a threat to Israel, making collaboration with them possible.
Additionally, there are less radical Islamist groups supported by Saudi Arabia and other countries that are not hostile to Israel. Interaction with these organisations can also be established.
5. Limitations of Islamist Radical Groups Supported by Erdoğan
Firstly, Erdoğan clearly understands that he cannot maintain his already precarious standing in European capitals, especially in Washington (where an openly pro-Israel administration will take office in a month and a half), without at least superficial reconciliation with Israel. He will undoubtedly have to abandon his previous aggressive anti-Israel rhetoric.
Secondly, Erdoğan is well aware that Israel is capable of thwarting his actions in Syria. Therefore, it seems that he will de facto strive for cooperation with Israel, albeit discreetly.
It is no coincidence that Islamist groups supported by Erdoğan have already declared that they are not against Israel but only intend to liberate Syria from the tyrannical regime responsible for the mass killings of Sunnis, as well as from Iran and Hezbollah.
It is worth noting that Erdoğan and the Sunni groups he finances primarily target Shiites and their patrons in Tehran, not Israel.
6. The Most Radical Muslim Groups
Among Syrian rebels are also direct successors of ISIS and Al-Qaeda. According to their own statements, their primary goal is to fight against Shiites, namely to destroy Hezbollah, other pro-Iranian militias, and the Syrian army. Their secondary goal, again according to their documents, is to wage war against “Christian” Europe. Only then do they declare their intent to fight Israel.
This means that while Israel cannot afford complacency, these groups should not be regarded as an immediate or serious threat.
It is noteworthy that when these extremist organisations controlled the Golan Heights area during the Syrian civil war, they did not attack Israel. They fought solely against the Syrian army, Hezbollah, and pro-Iranian Shiite militias. They even received medical assistance from Israel, like other groups.
These radical organisations constitute only a portion of the rebel factions active in Syria. Their influence is counterbalanced by Kurdish, Druze, Sunni (non-radical), and secular groups.
Currently, the shared objective of all rebel organisations is the destruction of Hezbollah, pro-Iranian militias, and remnants of the Syrian army—all of which clearly benefits Israel.
Victory in Syria Equals Defeat of Iran’s “Shiite Axis of Resistance”
The fall of Assad’s regime, Hezbollah’s defeat, and Iran’s reduced influence benefit Israel without risking Israeli soldiers. The IDF has already strengthened positions on the Golan Heights, increased ground and air forces, and secured the neutral zone along the Syrian border.
Interestingly, the word “Damascus,” according to the writings of the Arizal, corresponds to the word “Temple.” Therefore, this city must fall and be conquered. The Lubavitcher Rebbe himself asked for this as early as 1973.
Blessed be the Almighty. The collapse of Syria’s regime, Hezbollah’s downfall, and Iran’s diminished role occurred without Israeli intervention. Blessed be His Name forever.